The Economy, Real Estate, and What Smart Homeowners Are Doing Now

by Richard Berman

There’s a lot of noise lately about the economy, interest rates, and what’s coming next for housing. The latest International Monetary Fund (IMF) World Economic Outlook helps clarify what’s really going on — and how it connects to real estate here in Northern Nevada.

If you prefer the short version: the economy is cooling, not collapsing.

The Economy in a Nutshell

Global growth is projected to slow from about 3.3% in 2024 to 3.2% in 2025, and about 3.1% in 2026.
The U.S. economy is expected to grow about 2.0% in 2025 according to the IMF.
Interest rates will likely stay higher for a while longer as inflation continues to ease.
Investment in AI and technology is helping shield parts of the economy, though it introduces potential volatility.
Global trade and labor-supply dynamics remain fragile, which means risk is tilted downward.

Bottom line: We’re in a late-cycle economy — stable, slower, but not stalled.

What It Means for Real Estate

In our market, think of it as a balanced market — not the frenzy of a few years ago, but not a freeze either.

Mortgage rates: Still elevated, around 6–7% for 30-year fixed in many cases.
Home prices: Flattening after years of strong growth — a healthy pause, not a crash.
Inventory: Slowly increasing, giving buyers a bit more choice and reducing extreme bidding war pressure.
New construction: Slowing because of higher costs and labor scarcity, which helps protect long-term values.
Key local note: In the Reno/Northern Nevada market, our mix of migration, limited land and lifestyle demand supports pricing even in a slower growth environment.

What Smart Buyers and Homeowners Are Doing

Buyers: Taking advantage of better selection and negotiation leverage. Remember: you can refinance a rate, but you cannot refinance a price you paid.
Sellers: Prepping homes early—staged, professionally photographed, priced right—so you’re ahead of the competition when inventory rises.
Homeowners: Reviewing equity, aligning decisions with long-term goals (upgrade, downsize, invest).
Investors: Identifying value-add and cash-flow opportunities while others are sitting on the sidelines.

In any market phase the winners are those who plan and act — not those who wait.

My Take

The national headlines can sound dramatic—but when you zoom in, markets like Reno are relatively well positioned. Our regional fundamentals (in-migration, business environment, lifestyle appeal, land constraints) remain strong.

This is a market for thoughtful moves, not panic. Whether you’re buying, selling, investing, or simply evaluating options, having a clear plan beats reacting to every headline.

Helpful Links for Deeper Insight

IMF World Economic Outlook (October 2025): Download the full report / executive summary
IMF Fiscal Monitor (October 2025): Spending Smarter: How Efficient and Well-Allocated Public Spending Can Boost Economic Growth
Mortgage News Daily — live mortgage & housing data: Mortgage Rates & Home Sales Indices
U.S. Existing Home Sales (National Association of Realtors): Latest release & regional breakdowns

Let’s Talk Strategy

If you’re curious about what’s happening in your specific neighborhood—or want to talk timing, pricing, or investment strategy—I’d be glad to walk you through the numbers and help you align the move to your goals.

If you know someone who’s thinking about buying or selling, I’d appreciate the introduction. Much of my business comes from referrals from clients like you, and I don’t take that trust for granted.

Richard Berman

Realtor® | The Berman Group at Dickson Realty

Buy with Confidence. Sell with Success.

775-450-1940